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Globe-Watch

Global posture is —, with — threats already under way. Most likely to escalate next: —. For the United States, — threats are rated a direct risk, led by —.

Threat index over time

The impact-weighted average of every threat's 72-hour chance, scored each sweep. Threats at L5 count in full. The United States line covers only threats rated a direct risk to the US. Dashed lines mark the level boundaries.

The shaded stretch is reconstructed: twice-weekly ratings rebuilt from dated reporting, each made as the situation looked on that day. Points after it come from live sweeps.

Global — — since the previous sweep
United States — — since the previous sweep
Global posture — Highest threat level, raised when several sit at L3 or above
Under way — Significant events already happening
Elevated or above — Watched threats rated L3 or higher
Direct threats to the US — Aimed at US territory, forces, infrastructure or finances
FLASH alerts — In the latest sweep
Last sweep — — · — sweep · next due —

Threats to the United States

Direct threats aim at US territory, citizens, forces, critical infrastructure or the financial system. Indirect ones reach the US through allies, prices or supply chains. Most serious first; select a row to see its evidence.

ID Threat US exposure Level 72-hour chance How it reaches the US

Threat board

Sorted by severity. Select a row to see the evidence behind it. For threats already under way, the 72-hour chance is the chance of a further step-up.

ID Threat Latest Status US Level 72-hour chance Longer outlook Impact Trend Verified Next trigger

Level changes

Every time a threat moved up or down a level, newest first. Reconstructed changes link to the reporting they were based on.

When (UTC) Threat Change What happened Source

Evidence log

Key claims from the latest sweep, each with its Admiralty grade: a letter for how reliable the source is, then a number for how well the claim is confirmed.

When (UTC) Item Claim Grade Source

Coming up

Dated events that could move one or more threats.

Date Event Threats

Sweep log

Every sweep, newest first. FULL sweeps cover every category; DELTA sweeps recheck the riskiest threats and scan for breaking news.

When (UTC) Mode Posture FLASH Headline

How to read the ratings

Escalation level

The chance of a significant event within 72 hours: a blackout, an attack, a cyber disruption, a supply-chain break, a banking failure or an outbreak crossing its threshold.

    Source reliability

    A completely reliable: an official agency or primary data feed. B usually reliable: a major wire service or outlet. C fairly reliable: regional outlets, trackers, think tanks. D not usually reliable: a belligerent's state media or a partisan source. E unreliable. F cannot be judged.

    Information credibility

    1 confirmed by independent sources. 2 probably true. 3 possibly true. 4 doubtful. 5 improbable. 6 cannot be judged. A side's claims about its own successes stay at 3 or worse until someone independent confirms them.

    Impact and trend

    Impact runs from I1, local, to I5, global and systemic. Trend compares each threat with the sweep before: ↑ rising, ↓ falling, → steady.