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Globe-Watch
Updated — · next sweep about —
Global posture is —, with — threats already under way. Most likely to escalate next: —. —
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Expected significant events, next 72 hours
Every threat's 72-hour chance, added up: a threat at 60% adds 0.6 events. The total is how many significant events the ratings expect in the next three days, and the Track record below checks it against what happened. The second line adds up only the threats rated a direct risk to your region, using today's ratings for every past sweep, so a change in those ratings redraws the whole line.
On 7 days or All, the shaded stretch is reconstructed: twice-weekly ratings rebuilt from dated reporting, each made as the situation looked on that day. Points after it come from live sweeps.
Your region: loading
Direct threats aim at the region's territory, citizens, forces, critical infrastructure or financial system. Indirect ones reach it through allies, prices, supply chains, travel or refugees. The ratings cover the threats on the global watchlist, so a local hazard appears here only once it is serious enough to join it. Most serious first; select a row to see its evidence.
| ID | Threat | Exposure | Level | 72-hour chance | How it reaches the region |
|---|
Threat board
Sorted by severity. Select a row to see the evidence behind it. For threats already under way, the 72-hour chance is the chance of a further step-up.
| ID | Threat | Latest | Status | Region | Level | 72-hour chance | Longer outlook | Impact | Trend, 24h | Verified | Next trigger |
|---|
72-hour chance by sweep
One chart per threat on one shared scale. Dashed lines mark where one level ends and the next begins. Lines grow as sweeps run.
Level changes
Every time a threat moved up or down a level, newest first. Reconstructed changes link to the reporting they were based on.
| When (UTC) | Threat | Change | What happened | Source |
|---|
Track record
Each day the first sweep after 12:00 UTC is logged as that day's forecast for every threat, with a yes/no test written before the outcome is known. A forecast comes true when a confirmed event passes its test within 72 hours. It is scored once that happens, or once the 72 hours and a 12-hour grace period for late confirmations pass with no such event.
The Brier score is the average of (chance − outcome)², where the outcome is 1 or 0. Lower is better: 0 is perfect, and always saying 50% scores 0.250. In well-calibrated forecasts, about as many events happen as the chances add up to, and the share that came true in each band sits inside the band.
By band of chance
| Band | Forecasts | Average chance | Came true |
|---|
By threat
| Threat | Forecasts | Average chance | Came true | Brier |
|---|
Resolved forecasts, newest first
| Made (UTC) | Threat | Chance | Outcome | Test | Event |
|---|
Evidence log
Key claims from the latest sweep, each with its Admiralty grade: a letter for how reliable the source is, then a number for how well the claim is confirmed.
| When (UTC) | Item | Claim | Grade | Source |
|---|
No claims match this filter.
Coming up
Dated events that could move one or more threats.
| Date | Event | Threats |
|---|
Sweep log
Every sweep, newest first. FULL sweeps cover every category; DELTA sweeps recheck the riskiest threats and scan for breaking news.
| When (UTC) | Mode | Posture | FLASH | Headline |
|---|
How to read the ratings
Escalation level
The chance of a significant event within 72 hours: a blackout, an attack, a cyber disruption, a supply-chain break, a banking failure or an outbreak crossing its threshold.
Source reliability
A completely reliable: an official agency or primary data feed. B usually reliable: a major wire service or outlet. C fairly reliable: regional outlets, trackers, think tanks. D not usually reliable: a belligerent's state media or a partisan source. E unreliable. F cannot be judged.
Information credibility
1 confirmed by independent sources. 2 probably true. 3 possibly true. 4 doubtful. 5 improbable. 6 cannot be judged. A side's claims about its own successes stay at 3 or worse until someone independent confirms them.
Impact and trend
Impact runs from I1, local, to I5, global and systemic. Trend compares each threat with its first rating in the last 24 hours: ↑ rising, ↓ falling, → steady. It counts a change of level or of the 72-hour chance, shown in percentage points.
Expected events and track record
The headline figure adds up every threat's 72-hour chance: the number of significant events the ratings expect in the next three days. Each day's forecasts are scored against what happened, under Track record.
About Globe-Watch
Non-partisan by method. Globe-Watch rates events on evidence, not on which side they favour. The same rules apply to every government, military and armed group: a party's claims about its own successes stay at "possibly true" or lower until an independent source confirms them, and the state media of any party to a conflict is graded as not usually reliable, whichever side it serves.
Public sources only. Every rating draws on existing, publicly available sources: official government, military and intergovernmental releases; open infrastructure and network data from grid operators, internet-outage monitors, aircraft and shipping trackers, and hazard and space-weather feeds; and established news outlets. Nothing comes from leaks, private intelligence or paywalled data. Each claim links to where it came from and carries an Admiralty grade, so you can check it yourself. The Sources menu at the top of the page lists all 154.
How it is made. An automated, AI-assisted pipeline sweeps these sources about every 30 minutes and applies the rating method described under How to read the ratings. It can be wrong or late. Treat it as a starting point, and check the linked sources before acting.